Matthew Ferchen:中国的拉丁美洲利益

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在中国的经济影响力和国内消费都与日俱增的同时,中国也在一步步加深其与拉美国家的关系的。虽然中国一再强调,它与拉美国家之间的关系具有天然互补性、南南合作的加强会使双方受益匪浅,一些拉美国家仍然担心,拉美对中国存在过度依赖。

在访谈中,Matthew Ferchen分析了日渐加强的拉中关系及它对世界其他国家的影响,比如对美国的影响。在Ferchen看来,问题的关键在于,拉中关系能否同时在经济和政治两方面,做到着眼长远、稳定持久。

n  中国与拉丁美洲国家关系的基本性质是怎样的?

上个十年,是拉中关系飞速发展的十年,这尤其体现在拉中的经济关系上。从2000年到2010年,中国与拉丁美洲的贸易扩张了15倍还多;单看2008年至2010年,中国对拉美地区的投资也扩张了180%

驱动拉中经济关系发展的主要力量,来自于中国对拉美农矿产品和能源资源的强劲需求。中国从拉美进口了大量的铜铁矿石、大豆和石油,同时,拉丁美洲也成为中国工业制成品重要的出口目的地。中国向拉美出口的产品从调制解调器到电动自行车,不一而足。

有多个维度可以帮助我们考察拉中关系,比如历史上曾经出现过的中国向古巴、秘鲁等国的移民潮。但在最近十年,维系拉中关系的主要还是二者之间的贸易、投资纽带。虽然中国与拉美各国的外交关系也得以发展深化,但与经济利益相比,政治或意识形态仍然不构成加速拉中关系发展的主要因素。

对拉美国家的政治精英和商业领袖而言,拉中关系的这一特点让人喜忧参半。有所喜,既因为拉中的贸易和投资关系飞速发展,还因为中国的存在,为取代长期以来美国在这一地区的政治经济上的最强影响提供了可能;有所忧,因为拉中关系的加强,可能意味着拉美再次陷入那种依赖外国商品的不良历史模式当中,又因为中国强大的制造和出口力量,可能会造成本土工业的空心化。

n  在拉丁美洲,哪些国家与中国的关系最为密切?

能从拉中之间经济关系的繁荣中获益的,只是拉美国家中商品丰富的小部分。近年来,中国已经成为巴西、智利和秘鲁的第一大贸易伙伴(在进出口两方面都是),阿根廷的第二大贸易伙伴。不出两年,中国还会成为巴西和秘鲁最大的外国直接投资来源地。

为了进一步巩固贸易关系、锁定太平洋沿岸的贸易伙伴,中国已与智利、秘鲁和哥斯达黎加签署自由贸易协定(其中,与哥斯达黎加的协定签署工作刚刚完成)。同时,中国还与委内瑞拉、厄瓜多尔和巴西等国进行了大宗能源交易,这主要是为了获取石油。

为了发展对外政治联系,一些拉美领导人也将触角伸向中国。尽管在意识形态问题上,中国总是表现得小心翼翼、做到尽量淡化,但无论是古巴、委内瑞拉还是厄瓜多尔、玻利维亚,那里的左翼政治领袖们无不把与中国共享社会主义价值理念的重要性反复强调。与之相比,中国倒是更热衷于发展与中国同为金砖四国之一的巴西的关系。尤其是20082009年间金融危机以后,中国特别热衷于与巴西等国共同促进国际金融系统的改革。

n  除了上述拉美国家,还有哪些国家在发展与中国的关系方面具有较大潜力?

由于墨西哥靠近北美出口市场,具有地缘优势,一般的预计是中国会在墨西哥发掘更多商业机会(这可能还包括巴拿马和哥伦比亚,美国刚刚与这两国签署自由贸易协定)。虽然墨西哥是拉美地区的第二大经济体,但在拉美对中国的出口热潮中,它一直被视为一个反例。墨西哥不仅在对中国的贸易上存在逆差,而且在对北美出口的问题上,也与中国竞争激励。

对于更广阔的拉丁美洲和加勒比地区,中国与那些缺乏原材料储备的国家建立紧密的经济联系的可能性比较低。拉美国家普遍存在对中国商品输出的依赖。只有哥斯达黎加(以电脑芯片的形式)向中国输出大量的电子产品,因而成为上述模式中一个有趣的例外。

事实上,哥斯达黎加与中国关系的缔结,也是中国试图开辟与中美洲和加勒比地区国家友好关系的一次实验。世界上共有23个主权国家仍与与台湾、而非大陆保持着外交关系。在这23个国家中,有12个位于中美洲。2007年哥斯达黎加与中国外交关系的建立,打破了这一格局。到了2011年,中国与哥斯达黎加自由贸易协定也开始生效。

倘若该地区其它国家纷纷效仿哥斯达黎加的先例,那么中国仍有可能增加与这些国家经济往来。但其它国家不太可能“依葫芦画瓢”,即使它们这样做了,也很难再靠向中国出口高科技产品获得成功。在中美洲和加勒比地区,目前已经跟中国建立紧密联系并由此获益的国家,往往都是“避税天堂”,比如开曼群岛和英属维京群岛。

对于希望加强与中国关系的中美洲和加勒比地区国家而言,问题的关键在于如何发挥自身作为国际旅游景点的优势,并最终发掘其它优势。哥斯达黎加和巴巴多斯的教育界精英们建议,把当地的高等教育中心作为研究中国问题、研究拉美及加勒比地区与中国关系的主要动力。虽然目前来看,这些科研项目的规模和内容相对有限,但由于了解中国的需求会逐渐迫切,这些项目的潜力很大。

n  中拉关系是一种互惠关系么?

中国官方总是用“互惠互利”、“双赢”“南南合作”这样的词语,来形容它与拉丁美洲日渐紧密的关系。(在描述中国与非洲、东南亚的其它发展中国家的关系时,它也是采用同样的表述。)资源丰富的拉美国家能够满足资源紧缺的中国对矿产品、农产品和能源资源的巨大需求——中国的习惯是强调双方关系的这种互补性。在2008年中国对拉美政策白皮书中,我们也能看出这一观点。同时,除了作为一种官方的外交立场,它还是中国国内媒体和学界在拉中关系问题上的主流看法。

这一观点还被一些拉美国家的政界、商业人士所认可。比如受人爱戴的巴西前总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦就曾对巴西与中国的紧密联系表示赞扬,他认为这是一种双赢关系,因为这属于南南合作。

但是,对于拉美与中国之间的互补关系,还存在着另一种解读。这种解读把拉美对中国出口原材料并从中国进口工业制成品,描述成为商品依赖——这一传统区域模式的强制推行。按照这种观点,现有模式能为中国带来远期利益更大。因此,卢拉总统的前任,费尔南多·恩里克·卡多佐在去年就曾总结道:“中国不是南方。中国就是中国,中国有中国的国家利益。”

尽管在与政敌的斗争和总统遗产保护问题上,两位巴西前总统态度迥异,他们都强调了由中巴贸易和投资往来的空前繁荣所引发的国内喜忧参半的情绪。其实,从铁矿和大豆的出口以及中国对巴西的直接投资中,巴西获益颇丰。即便如此,巴西国内还是倾向于认为,中巴关系带来的挑战多于机遇。

一些巴西人担心,经济的自然资源出口导向会侵蚀国内制造业,同时,巴西制造商还必须在本土市场和第三国市场与中国制造商展开竞争。另外,中国对巴西的投资增长似乎给巴西货币带来了升值压力。

其实,优势互补也好,商品依赖也好,两种观点都未免言过其实。南美国家大部分的商品依赖措施,都只是南美与中国之间货物输出、工业制成品输入的工业循环的一部分,它所能反映的依赖程度其实非常有限。

之所以这么说,主要是因为除了在智利,拉美对中国的商品出口商并非是驱动其它拉美国家整体经济发展的主要力量。但当中国成为某个拉美国家的最大贸易或投资伙伴,人们总是认为,无论好坏,这个国家的国内经济只能与中国“同呼吸、共命运”了。目前,人们对经济发展模式的探讨内容,已从之前的“美国模式”或“欧洲模式”转向“中国模式”;倘若我们把这一火爆的话题也纳入其中,那么无论听上去多么夸张,在人们眼中,中国的分量只会更强。

n  比起中国在非洲的活动,中国与拉美国家之间的互动有无不同之处?

很少有研究,从发展方式和互动模式的角度,比较中非与中拉的异同。其实,每每论及中国与发展中国家的经济互动、政治关系,拉美和非洲都被相提并论。中拉与中非,既有明显的共同点,也有显著的区别。

就共同点而言,中国把与拉美和非洲的关系都描述成发展中国家(南方国家)的紧密团结。中国在对三地共有的、反殖民主义的历史表示出极大同情的同时,还强调三者在反对美欧霸权主义问题上立场的一致性。

抛开人员和物品流动在长期的差异性,当代中非、中拉关系的起飞时间也很近:当代中非和中拉间政治经济纽带大约都形成于十年之前。从根本上说,中国与二者的紧密关系都根源于中国不断增长的对农矿产品和能源资源的需求。因此,非洲和拉美对与中国日渐紧密的经济关系也都喜忧参半。

尽管如此,中国与非洲的关系比拉美更为紧密。这主要归功于毛泽东时期,中国政府曾致力于领导“第三世界”的社会主义革命。中国也因此把自己视为给非洲带来独立和社会主义的施惠者。虽然中拉之间也有某些意识形态和革命领域的纽带存在(其中最著名的是秘鲁游击队“光辉道路”),可是这些纽带从未向中非之间的那般紧密。

直到80年代和90年代,中非和中拉关系都还相对平静,但十年之前,事情开始发生变化。即使中国在拉美的贸易投资已超过非洲,中非关系却成为了中拉关系的挡箭牌。

另外,虽然中国一直强调非洲和拉美都由发展中国家组成,但这两个地区在历史、经济、政治方面还是存在重大区别。中非关系比中拉关系更具争议性。争议的部分原因是中国在非洲的贸易和投资往往被披上“发展援助”的外衣,而这一现象在拉美就比较少见。另外,中国公司会把本国工人送往非洲参与工程项目,这在拉美也不太可能,特别是某些拉美国家已经立法禁止了这种行为。

由于非洲的独立运动比拉美迟到许多,因此,中国对共同反对殖民主义的强调,也在两地产生了不同的反响。虽然也有一些欧美人士认为,随着中国与拉美的经济联系日间紧密,中国同一些拉美左翼领导人的交流也会相应增加,这就为“民主空洞”的形成埋下隐患。但西方社会对中非关系的担忧显然更为严重,尤其是考虑到中国已经做出承诺,对非洲的那些独裁者或准独裁者帮助、支持或者至少是不加干预。

n  日渐紧密的中拉关系会对中美关系产生哪些影响?

对美国来说,中拉关系的紧密既是机遇,又是挑战。说是挑战,因为中国的出现,为这一地区的国家寻找经济伙伴、甚至是潜在的政治伙伴提供了又一选择。论及美国的对外经济、政治政策对拉美的影响,人们的态度总是来回摇摆于二者之间:要么是恐惧美国的过度干预,要么是担心美国的影响力不足。尤其是经济危机以来,那些与美国关系更紧密的国家,总是被用来与那些跟中国关系更加紧密的国家进行比较。

虽然美国依旧是拉美地区的最大贸易和投资伙伴,但公众心中中国崛起、美国衰落的印象,使得美国必须找到重新参与拉美政治经济生活的方式。这种方式应给人们留下的印象是,美国正在试图促进拉美的政治、经济发展,而不是对其加以限制。所以,即使“中国模式”或“北京共识”的内涵还有模糊不清、尚待解读,人们把中国视为成功发展的模范本身,以及中国成为拉美地区新生的贸易投资伙伴的事实,这二者都会迫使美国重新思考它对拉美和世界其他地区的经济、政治政策。

说到机遇,由于同中国的经贸往来促进了拉美国家的经济增长,对美国而言,中国也不失为促进西半球发展的一股积极力量。中国帮助拉美建设了它们急需的基础设施,而这些基础设施又大多是促进交通等的公共设施。美国对中国的这一作用非常欢迎。

最后,中国在拉美的活跃表现,还为填补亚洲和美洲在文化和教育背景上的巨大差异提供了契机。中拉彼此相互认识、加深理解的需求十分迫切;为了弥补认识上的差异,美国的大学已经成立了许多项目进行研究,这些项目也会继续开展下去。

n  中拉关系的深入发展具备哪些有利因素?它必须面对的挑战又是什么?

其实,中拉之间经济关系,其最大优势也是其最为薄弱之处。拉美的担忧正来源于被人们(尤其是中国政府)视为“互补”的地方。在短期(23年内),这种以商品为基础的贸易和投资关系的发展趋势的确乐观,但在中期(310年)乃至长期,这种关系能否持续、持续多久仍有待考察。

对中拉而言,最大的挑战在于,如何同时做到,政治和经济两方面的长期、同步、稳定发展。而想做到这一点,中国和拉美都任重道远。

拉美务必促进其与中国贸易和投资活动朝多样化发展,而不仅仅将其局限在商品领域。在投资方面,中国对基础设施的投资是常常被人提及,而它也确实亟待发展。拉美政府还热衷于促进对中国出口的多样化,但若想深入中国国内市场,它还必须面对来自全球的竞争。

中国面对的挑战在于,除了口头上的“双赢”“互惠”,它必须更深入的理解拉美在对中国贸易和投资问题上的焦虑。中拉政府和商界人士需要共同努力,促进双方经济关系的多样化。在这一点上,基础设施投资领域也同样具有很大的发展潜力。另外,中拉都面临着如何避免“中等收入陷阱”的难题,因此在医疗、社保和养老保险制度改革方面,双方也存在着很广泛的交流空间。

美国应当竭尽所能,为上述问题依照积极、务实的方式得到解决发挥力量。华盛顿共识与北京共识之间的僵局,不会给任何一方带来好处。

本文作者是卡内基—清华全球政策研究中心的常驻学者。

译者:盛薇

原文地址 China’s Latin American Interests

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