《思想库报告》2015年第12期 / 总第513期

编辑手记

近期,中国以美元计价的外汇储备大跌,但其实欧元对美元的贬值是这种降幅的最大原因。从数据来看,今年这个季度,中国央行基本未干预外汇市场,美国政府与其怀疑人民币汇率操纵,不如说服中国政府增加外汇储备的透明度,因为中国曾在去年G20峰会上表示将采纳IMF的数据公布特殊标准(SDDS),而这个标准要求国家披露外汇储备的组成。

很多人可能很熟悉巴菲特的一个说法:联邦政策是美国兴建风电厂的唯一原因。许多人在估算风力发电成本是并未囊括美国纳税人的相关补贴负担,实际上,风力发电的真实成本超过大多数美国人的承受范围。

对于近期与伊朗核谈判所达成的框架协议,奥巴马政府称其为巨大的外交胜利,但要达成最终协议,很明显仍有几大重要阻碍——其中任何一项都有可能使之前的努力全功尽弃。尽管大部分美国人认为伊朗才是一个不值得信任的伙伴,但同样有理由怀疑美国遵守其承诺的意愿。

民族主义在什么时候会增大国际争端的风险?学界一般认为民族主义是战争的主要诱因,并且强调精英会利用爱国主义者的热情,但学界较少的关注精英如何努力地去压制民族主义抗议,因为他们担心这可能会危害到国内稳定和外交关系。政府对于民众爱国主义的担心,和政府压制民众爱国主义的能力,在不同的政体类型中有着不同的情况,其中弱制度化民主政体与竞争性的威权政体所遭遇的风险更大。

目  录

美政府应减少对人民币操纵的怀疑

风力发电,只是看上去很美

伊核协议,障碍尚存

民族主义者的抗议、政府回应与国际争端升级的风险

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