《思想库报告》2015年第13期 / 总第514期

编辑手记

IMF首席经济学家布兰查德(Olivier Blanchard)在近日的“反思宏观经济政策III”会议上,对当下宏观经济从宏观审慎政策、货币政策和财政政策三个方面介绍了目前的进展与困惑,比如大家都认为目前央行资产负债表的规模很大,但是资产负债表应该调整到危机前的规模,或者规模更小以适应逐步减少的对货币交易需求的目的?或者应该保持目前的大规模,以适应银行不得不面对的超额准备金的利息支付?目前,还鲜有对适度规模的讨论。

世界经济是陷入了“长期停滞”,还是目前的弱增长只是体现了金融危机后的债务超级周期?哈佛大学经济和公共政策学教授罗格夫(Kenneth Rogoff)认为,债务超级周期这个角度更能准确地理解目前经济。债务超级周期模型符合几百年来类似金融危机的经验,而就像缓慢变迁的人口结构不能解释房价急剧地由泡沫转向崩溃,长期停滞观点也无法诠释全球经济的“心脏病发作”。而对于目前的低利率,也有很多的解释因素。

20136月起美欧正式宣布启动TTIP谈判,至今已进行至第九轮,然而TTIP在欧洲引发的大规模抗议潮令欧盟官员与欧洲国家政府官员始料未及,为了解TTIP的困难所在和未来,本期摘译了欧洲国际政治经济中心(ECIPE)的一个相关报告,阐述了相关障碍和未来推进谈判所需要的条件。

  

反思宏观经济政策(III):进步还是混乱

债务超级周期,而非经济长期停滞

TTIP问题重重

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