中国石油市场的争夺

本文摘自网站oilprice.com,作者Nike Cunningham为能源和环境方面的评论员。

长期以来,中国一直担心其石油供应的安全性。中国是上世纪90年代石油净出口国,但随着经济腾飞,油耗水平也快速攀升,中国现在是全球第二大石油消费国,最近超过美国成为世界上最大的石油进口国。

图1:中国的石油生产和消费(1980-2010年)

这引发了中国将从哪里采购石油的忧虑,抛开中国国内在需求端的抑制性措施,我们来研究一下供给端的现状和未来情况。

建立战略石油储备以减少其进口的脆弱性一直被中国高度重视,中国计划到2020年建成5亿桶石油储备,相较而言,美国战略石油储备保持在7.27亿桶。随着青岛的容量为1900万桶的二期原油战略储备库开始注油,中国的石油进口量急剧提升,6月份创下720万桶/日的记录,随着今年晚些时候另一个储存设施的开放,石油进口量可能会继续上升。

中国寻求安全原油进口供应的另一种方式是与尽可能多的石油生产国锁定供应合同。中国绝大多数的石油进口来自中东和非洲,图2为2014年中国原油进口来源国分布情况:沙特阿拉伯占16%;安哥拉占13%;俄罗斯占11%;阿曼占10%;伊拉克占9%;伊朗占9%;委内瑞拉占和阿拉伯各占4%;科威特占和哥伦比亚各占3%;刚果、巴西、南苏丹和哈萨克斯坦各占2%。

图2:中国石油进口来源国(2014年)

近几年来,几个地缘政治事件凸显了这种进口依赖的危险性。 2011年,苏丹为中国每天提供26万桶石油,但次年暴力事件爆发后,这一数字缩小为零;同样,利比亚后内战爆发后,中国也失去了那里的一些石油供应并切断了商品出口;而2012年国际社会通过对伊朗的制裁后,中国从伊朗的原油进口从2011年的每天55万桶,降至2012年的每天43.9万桶,虽然这看上去并不是一个大幅下降,但我们应该要记住的是中国的进口量在这段时间持续增加,需要更多的供应来源。

然而,时至2015年,相较于2012年时的有关预测,中国在石油进口方面却处于一个更有利的位置,原因如下:

Ø  美国与伊朗达成的历史性协议,再次开辟了石油大量供应的机会。事实上,中国已经抢跑了——其今年从伊朗平均原油进口水平已经超过了对伊国际制裁生效时的2012年。美国似乎在与伊朗谈判期间,为了守住中国的支持,忽略了这个事实。到目前为止,中国今年每日从伊朗进口原油近60万桶,而且这一数字可能在未来几年随着伊朗石油产量的提高而大幅激增。

Ø  同时,目前也是沙特阿拉伯石油生产创纪录之际,据华尔街日报,沙特6月产量增加到了1050万桶/日,并且与伊朗将继续争夺在中国的市场份额。沙特更大原油产出需要找到一个归巢,而中国是合乎逻辑的选择。

Ø  伊拉克也随着其产量增加而增加了对中国的出口,而中海油、中石化、中石油这几家中国石油公司已经在伊拉克石油产业中处于上游位置,促进了其石油产量的上升。

Ø  此外,俄罗斯也似乎渴望为中国这一闹油荒的邻国增加石油供应,2014年,中国从俄罗斯的石油进口量暴涨了36%,这一增幅部分归功于俄方对中国的石油输送管道。事实上,俄罗斯去年就从沙特阿拉伯手上撬开了中国市场占有率,而输油管道的扩张也将有助于俄罗斯在未来几年内向中国的石油出口增长。

Ø  最后,美国石油产量的激增也在极大程度上让中国获益,一方面是供应增加导致油价下跌,从而大大降低了中国相关的石油进口支出;另外一方面,美国对石油进口的急剧减少加剧了其他世界产油国对中国市场的争夺。

总之,中国仍高度依赖石油进口来满足其能源需求,进口量也很可能会持续上升,但是相比几年前,由于产油国在相互竞争来争取市场份额,中国的能源安全突然之间变得相当稳固。

译者:上海金融与法律研究院研究助理,张睿

 

《思想库报告》是上海金融与法律研究院(SIFL)出品的一份公益性电子刊物,以国际智库之思想,关照中国改革之现实。本刊与国际知名智库彼得森国际经济研究所(PIIE)、传统基金会(Heritage Foundation)、加图研究所(Cato Institute)、卡内基国际和平基金会以及Foreign Affairs建立了版权关系,并进行长期合作。

 若您想定制《思想库报告》,请发订阅申请到thinksifl@gmail.com进行订阅;若您不想被打扰,也请发送取消订阅邮件至上述邮箱。

扫一扫,关注《思想库报告》的微信。

1376887996

 

65个评论 to “中国石油市场的争夺”

  • Hello.This post was extremely remarkable, particularly because I was searching for thoughts on this matter last Tuesday.

  • I’d should examine with you here. Which is not one thing I often do! I get pleasure from reading a publish that will make folks think. Additionally, thanks for allowing me to remark!

  • I love the efforts you have put in this, appreciate it for all the great posts.

  • Thanks for sharing excellent informations. Your web site is very cool. I am impressed by the details that you¦ve on this web site. It reveals how nicely you perceive this subject. Bookmarked this web page, will come back for extra articles. You, my pal, ROCK! I found simply the info I already searched all over the place and just couldn’t come across. What a great website.

  • This web site is really a walk-through for all of the info you wanted about this and didn’t know who to ask. Glimpse here, and you’ll definitely discover it.

  • tech 说道:

    I like this blog very much so much excellent information.

  • tech 说道:

    Well I truly enjoyed reading it. This subject offered by you is very constructive for proper planning.

  • I got what you intend, appreciate it for putting up.Woh I am pleased to find this website through google. “Those who corrupt the public mind are just as evil as those who steal from the public.” by Theodor Wiesengrund Adorno.

  • bolsas para tienda 说道:

    Hey! Do you know if they make any plugins to assist with SEO? I’m trying to get my blog to rank for some targeted keywords but I’m not seeing very good success. If you know of any please share. Cheers!

  • 4liker 说道:

    When I initially commented I clicked the “Notify me when new comments are added” checkbox and now each time a comment is added I get three e-mails with the same comment. Is there any way you can remove me from that service? Appreciate it!

  • Have you ever considered about including a little bit more than just your articles? I mean, what you say is fundamental and everything. But think of if you added some great images or video clips to give your posts more, “pop”! Your content is excellent but with images and clips, this blog could certainly be one of the very best in its field. Superb blog!

  • Autolikes 说道:

    What i do not understood is actually how you’re not really much more well-liked than you may be right now. You are very intelligent. You realize therefore considerably relating to this subject, produced me personally consider it from so many varied angles. Its like men and women aren’t fascinated unless it’s one thing to do with Lady gaga! Your own stuffs excellent. Always maintain it up!

  • Thank you for the sensible critique. Me and my neighbor were just preparing to do some research on this. We got a grab a book from our local library but I think I learned more from this post. I’m very glad to see such fantastic info being shared freely out there.

  • The next time I read a blog, I hope that it doesnt disappoint me as much as this one. I mean, I know it was my choice to read, but I actually thought youd have something interesting to say. All I hear is a bunch of whining about something that you could fix if you werent too busy looking for attention.

  • Ombre Eyebrows 说道:

    Do you have a spam problem on this site; I also am a blogger, and I was wondering your situation; we have developed some nice procedures and we are looking to exchange strategies with other folks, why not shoot me an email if interested.

  • 留下评论:

    昵称(必须):
    邮箱地址 (不会被公开) (必须):
    站点
    评论 (必须)