城市群如何才能推动经济发展

从国家层面来看,城市群对经济发展起了什么样的作用?从我们的实证结果上看,并不明显。

以中国经济实力最强的长三角地区为例。2014年长三角GDP突破了2万亿美元,它的经济总量跟印度、俄罗斯相当,作为一个经济体,排在全球12位,它的总量相当于我们80年代作为追赶对象的亚洲四小龙经济总量之和。它的区域发展,是中国最有市场潜力,是中国市场化程度最高的区域。

长三角地区是区域规划最为全面的,区域合作机制方面,包括主要领导人的定期磋商机制,包括一些市长联席会议,包括相关职能部门的一些专题研讨会。长三角地区的协同早在上世纪90年代就在进行。那么让我们来看一下,一个城市加不加入长三角,会有什么样的不同。

我们从1997-2013年的长三角地区做了县一级的调查。从97年开始,期间有很多城市逐渐加入长三角市长联席会议。在加入当年,当地的经济增长、人口和人力资本确实有显著的变化。但长期效应怎么样?非常遗憾,短期上,一两年是有效的,随着时间的推移,加入不加入长三角市长联席会议,对于一个城市的作用并不显著。

也就是说,仅凭市长联席会议,城市群并不能发挥出应有的作用。为了使得城市群发挥作用我们应该怎么办?

一是同城化,包括人口居住的同城化,交通出行的同城化,通勤就业的同城化,产业布局的同城化。从虹桥火车站到昆山、江苏,只要半个小时,但是从虹桥火车站到我所在的上海财经大学居然要1个半小时,人家都可以打高铁上班了。这就是新的模式下区域发展的格局,已经发生根本性的改变了。高铁的发展,使得长三角的格局发生了变化。

二是多规合一。多规合一不是讲城市内部的多规合一,讲的是城市内部的总体规划,土地规划、环境规划,这些规划要在同样一条线上把它规划出来。除此之外,我们还要使得长三角城市群内部的规划也要合一,城市与城市之间的规划也要合一。

三是合理度量城市边界。城市边界有三类,经济边界、地理边界和行政边界。地理边界是没有办法改变的,行政边界也很难改变,但经济边界可以改变。如果放到长三角来就是说,上海不仅仅是自己的上海,上海应该跟周边的城市自然而然融为一体。

四是要做理论上的突破。改革是一场实验,区域发展就是一个实验场,在这么一个实验场上,我们除了做一些检验、实证,那些小技巧、小case之外,我们应该做大理论。

本文为上海财经大学城市与区域科学学院副院长张学良在“年会2015:寻找增长的动力”上的精彩发言。

《思想库报告》是上海金融与法律研究院(SIFL)出品的一份公益性电子刊物,以国际智库之思想,关照中国改革之现实。本刊与国际知名智库彼得森国际经济研究所(PIIE)、传统基金会(Heritage Foundation)、加图研究所(Cato Institute)、卡内基国际和平基金会以及Foreign Affairs建立了版权关系,并进行长期合作。

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